“AI宠儿”秒成“败家子”，Meta还能杀回来吗？

Core Viewpoint - Meta has experienced significant volatility, with a recent rebound of 11% following a decline, driven by investor concerns over capital expenditures and cash flow management [6][8]. Group 1: Cash Flow Impact - Meta's recent financing activities, including a $30 billion direct bond issuance and a $27.3 billion off-balance-sheet financing, indicate short-term cash flow issues [8][15]. - If Meta's projected capital expenditures exceed $120 billion in 2026, it could nearly deplete its operating cash flow, raising concerns about sustainability [9][13]. - As of Q3, Meta's cash and short-term investments have decreased by nearly 40% year-over-year, leaving only $44 billion [10][12]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure and Profitability - Capital expenditures have surged, reaching 38% of revenue in Q3, with projections suggesting it could rise to 50% in 2026, significantly impacting profit margins due to depreciation costs [27][35]. - The cumulative pressure from depreciation costs is expected to peak in 2027, potentially reducing profit margins by 3 percentage points [35][38]. - Meta's reliance on external financing, such as the partnership with Blue Owl for data center construction, allows for immediate cash flow relief but raises long-term financial obligations [20][22]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Future Outlook - Despite short-term profitability challenges, Meta's core competitive advantages in social media remain intact, suggesting potential for recovery [42][44]. - The market's perception of AI investments and their impact on advertising revenue is evolving, with concerns about the sustainability of profit margins in an increasingly competitive environment [40][45]. - Meta's valuation, currently at 21x P/E, is below historical averages, indicating potential for recovery if cash flow and profitability can be stabilized [44].