市场如何消化茅台的放量

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the production cycle and future supply potential of Moutai liquor, emphasizing the unique production process and the expected market release of capacity over the next five years [2][6][17]. Production Process and Capacity - Moutai liquor is produced using a complex process involving specific ingredients and a lengthy production cycle, which includes a minimum of five years before the product can be sold [3][5]. - The design capacity reported in annual reports reflects the base liquor capacity that will only be marketable five years later, with the 2024 design capacity reported at 44,595 tons and actual capacity at 56,271.99 tons [6][9]. Capacity Conversion and Sales - The conversion coefficient for Moutai's production capacity typically ranges from 1.2x to 1.3x, influenced by annual climatic conditions [7][11]. - Actual sales figures reported in annual reports accurately reflect the sales for that year, but the production output does not directly correlate with the base liquor output from five years prior due to blending ratios and losses [8][10]. Future Sales Projections - Based on historical conversion coefficients and production data, Moutai's sales are projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.12%, reaching an estimated 64,613 tons by 2030 [15][17]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" for Moutai includes significant capacity expansion, with expectations for new production facilities to contribute to output starting in 2025 [12][14]. Social Inventory Analysis - Moutai's social inventory is complex and consists of both channel inventory and social inventory, with the latter further divided into speculative and collectible stocks [19][20]. - It is estimated that 30-40% of Moutai's annual sales flow into social inventory, amounting to approximately 90,000 to 95,000 tons, with a wealth retention value of around 400 billion yuan [21].