Core Viewpoint - Germany's fiscal transformation, involving a €500 billion special fund and budgetary reforms, aims to address investment deficits and stimulate economic growth amid structural challenges [4][8]. Group 1: Fiscal Transformation Details - The fiscal transformation plan consists of three main components: (1) a €500 billion infrastructure and climate neutrality special fund (SV IK); (2) relaxation of budget constraints on defense spending; (3) reform of the "debt brake" rules at the federal state level [4][12]. - The SV IK fund will focus on key areas such as transportation, digitalization, and green initiatives, with plans to utilize the fund over the next twelve years [4][12]. Group 2: 2025 Federal Budget Highlights - The 2025 federal budget, approved in September, anticipates a significant increase in spending, leading to a budget deficit rise from 0.6% in 2024 to 1.8% [5][15]. - Total federal spending is projected to reach €564 billion, a 17% year-on-year increase, with defense spending expected to rise to €94 billion, a 27% increase [5][15]. - Investment spending is forecasted to reach nearly €116 billion, reflecting a 55% increase compared to the previous year [5][15]. Group 3: Progress and Challenges - As of October, the progress in investment and defense spending has been slower than expected, with budgetary deficits reaching 81% of the annual target [5][30]. - Investment spending is at 70% of the target, while the special fund (SV IK) has completed 34% of its borrowing process [5][30]. - Concerns have arisen regarding whether the special fund's allocations will effectively translate into actual investments, with estimates suggesting only 47% may go towards new projects [34]. Group 4: 2026 Budget Outlook - The draft budget for 2026 indicates a significant increase in budget deficits, with projections suggesting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12% for deficits from 2025 to 2029 [6][16]. - Total investment as a percentage of GDP is expected to stabilize at around 2.5%, with defense spending gradually increasing from 2.1% in 2025 to 3.2% by 2029 [6][16]. - The net borrowing ratio is projected to peak at around 4% of GDP in 2026, compared to 3.2% in 2025 [6][16]. Group 5: Economic Implications - The fiscal measures are seen as crucial for driving a recovery in the Eurozone's asset markets, with expectations that the effects of these policies will begin to materialize in 2026 and 2027 [7][40]. - The anticipated economic growth for Germany is projected to rise from 0.2% this year to 1% next year, with further acceleration expected in subsequent years [40][41].
中金 • 全球研究 | 德国财政追踪：从财政转向到资金落地，进展如何？