XIAOMI(HK:01810) 硬AI·2025-12-05 06:45Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that while the Doubao AI phone is "popular," it faces significant challenges in system permissions, data acquisition, and application connectivity, which highlights the structural advantages of smartphone giants like Xiaomi [2][3]. Group 1: Doubao AI Phone Challenges - The Doubao AI phone assistant, launched by ByteDance, signifies that AI competition has reached the operating system level, but third-party AI agents face major challenges in obtaining system-level permissions, user data, and cross-application connectivity [3][5]. - Goldman Sachs identifies three core challenges for third-party AI agents: 1. System-level operational permissions are required to read screen content, simulate user behavior, and access system services, which major smartphone OEMs are unlikely to fully open to third parties [7]. 2. System-level memory capabilities are crucial for training and optimizing AI agents, which OEMs possess but third-party AI lacks [7]. 3. Cross-application interface connectivity depends on the openness of third-party internet applications, which may be restricted by companies aiming to build closed ecosystems [7]. Group 2: Market Structure and Competition - The Chinese smartphone market is highly consolidated, with the top six manufacturers (vivo, OPPO, Honor, Apple, Xiaomi, Huawei) accounting for over 90% of shipment volume, making it difficult for new entrants to disrupt the market [6][8]. - This high level of market concentration indicates that competition barriers in the smartphone industry are significant, solidifying the market positions of major players [9]. Group 3: Xiaomi's Competitive Advantage - Xiaomi is actively advancing its "people x vehicle x home" ecosystem strategy, with AI as a core component, and is expected to invest over 7 billion RMB in AI R&D by 2025, representing 22% of its total R&D expenses [11]. - As of Q3 2025, Xiaomi's globally connected AIoT devices are nearing 1 billion, and its AI assistant "Super XiaoAI" has a penetration rate of 71% among Xiaomi smartphone users [11][12]. - "Super XiaoAI" has achieved deep functional integration across various core scenarios, including social media, e-commerce, and productivity services, showcasing its capabilities in user interaction and task automation [12][13]. - Xiaomi's comprehensive strengths in operating systems, hardware, extensive AIoT ecosystem, and deeply integrated AI agents create a strong competitive barrier, making it difficult for third-party AI agents to pose a substantial threat in the short term [13].