KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) 集思录·2025-12-05 12:06Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in Chinese liquor sales over the past decade, highlighting a trend of "decreasing volume and increasing price" in the market, particularly for high-end baijiu [2][3]. Sales Changes - In 2016, baijiu sales peaked at approximately 1305 million tons, but are projected to drop to around 414 million tons by 2024 [2][4]. - The sales figures for baijiu from 2017 to 2025 are as follows: - 2017: 1200 million tons - 2018: 860 million tons - 2019: 755 million tons - 2020: 740 million tons - 2022: 670 million tons - 2023: 629 million tons - 2024 (forecast): 414 million tons - 2025 (forecast): 350 million tons [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The decline in baijiu consumption is attributed to reduced business banquets and a subsequent drop in high-end baijiu prices, which compresses the premium space for all baijiu [5]. - The high prices of brands like Moutai are linked to scarcity and marketing strategies, but as production increases, the perceived value diminishes [3][5]. - The article suggests that the high prices of Chinese liquor are not justified compared to international spirits, which are often of higher quality and lower price [4]. Consumer Behavior - The changing drinking culture, influenced by regulations and generational shifts, is leading to a decline in traditional drinking occasions, particularly among younger consumers [11]. - The article notes that while overall baijiu sales are declining, mid to high-end products are experiencing growth, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [12].