Bank of America(US:BAC) 华尔街见闻·2025-12-09 06:59Core Viewpoint - The chief investment strategist at Bank of America, Michael Hartnett, predicts that going long on commodities will be the best trading theme by 2026, with all commodity price trends expected to rise similarly to gold. This prediction is based on a shift in global economic policy from "monetary easing + fiscal tightening" post-financial crisis to "fiscal easing + de-globalization" after the pandemic [1][5]. Group 1: Commodity Market Outlook - Hartnett emphasizes that the Trump administration's "hot" economic policies and a potential resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict will lead to a rebound in oil prices, driving strength in the commodities sector [2][7]. - The report highlights that natural resources, metals, and Latin American stock markets (which have risen 56% year-to-date) are breaking out, with a particular focus on the oil and energy sectors as the best contrarian investment opportunity for 2026 [2][5]. Group 2: Economic Policy Shift - The core logic of Hartnett's assessment is rooted in the transition of economic policy paradigms: the combination of excessive monetary easing and fiscal tightening post-financial crisis favored bonds, while the post-pandemic environment of excessive fiscal easing and the end of globalization will favor commodities in the 2020s [3][5]. - The report indicates that the structural opportunities for commodities arise from this shift in global economic policy, contrasting the previous decade where bonds significantly outperformed commodities [5]. Group 3: Bond Market Insights - Despite a positive outlook on commodities, Hartnett expresses caution regarding the bond market, noting that historical patterns show bond yields tend to rise following the nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair [8][9]. - The report mentions that the Bank of America previously took a tactical long position in zero-coupon bonds, anticipating a Federal Reserve rate cut and economic interventions to lower inflation, but plans to end this position before the new chair's term begins [8][14]. Group 4: Stock Market Dynamics - Hartnett observes a complex differentiation in the stock market compared to the overall pressure in the bond market, suggesting that liquidity peaks correspond to credit spread lows [16]. - In the AI sector, the focus is on companies adopting AI technologies rather than those merely spending on it, with mid-cap stocks expected to perform well in 2026 due to potential economic interventions by the Trump administration [19]. - The report identifies cyclical sectors such as homebuilders, retail, and transportation as having the best relative upside, driven by anticipated economic stimulus policies [20].