Amazon(US:AMZN) 美股研究社·2025-12-10 12:06Core Viewpoint - Amazon's performance in 2025 is relatively weak with an annual increase of only 4%, while competitors like Google and Nvidia saw significant gains of 69% and 34% respectively. Analysts believe Amazon will emerge as the next leading stock in the tech sector [1]. Group 1: Amazon's AI Potential - Over the past two years, the market has focused on Nvidia's chips and Microsoft's and Google's software, underestimating Amazon's potential in the AI sector. Analysts suggest that Amazon is poised to dominate the AI-driven economy [5]. - Amazon's investment value extends beyond e-commerce, digital advertising, and AWS, with a significant focus on its extensive data center empire [6]. - Amazon's data center business has over 900 facilities across 50 countries, with many being colocation data centers, which enhances its operational scale [7]. Group 2: Competitive Advantages - The extensive network of over 900 interconnected facilities creates a strong competitive moat that is difficult for rivals to replicate, providing Amazon with a solid defense against emerging cloud computing competitors [8]. - Approximately 20% of Amazon's computing power is deployed through colocation, allowing for faster AI inference deployment compared to competitors who must build from scratch [8]. - Amazon's ability to deliver AI applications effectively positions it as a leader in the "last mile" of AI delivery, circumventing lengthy infrastructure build-out cycles [9]. Group 3: AWS Growth Potential - In Q3 2025, AWS revenue grew by 20% year-over-year, reaching an annualized revenue scale of $130 billion, driven by the Agentic AI wave and government contracts [10]. - Amazon has committed $50 billion to expand AI and supercomputing infrastructure for U.S. government agencies, significantly enhancing its market share in the public cloud sector [11]. - Morgan Stanley projects that as AI-related orders convert to revenue, AWS's growth rate could reach 25% in 2026, with a valuation range of $13.2 trillion to $19.8 trillion based on a 10-15x revenue multiple [12]. Group 4: Digital Advertising Performance - Despite AWS and data center focus, Amazon's digital advertising business shows remarkable financial performance, with Q3 2025 revenue growing by 22% year-over-year [14]. - The operating profit margin for digital advertising exceeds 50%, outperforming both e-commerce and AWS [15]. - Amazon's Prime Video has become a significant growth engine for advertising, with monthly user reach increasing from 200 million to 315 million in 18 months [15]. - The digital advertising segment is projected to generate approximately $70 billion in revenue for FY 2025, with an estimated operating profit of $25 billion [15]. Group 5: E-commerce Growth Outlook - McKinsey forecasts that the global e-commerce market could reach $14 trillion to $20 trillion by 2040, with Amazon holding about 38% of the U.S. market and 15% internationally [18]. - Assuming a conservative estimate, Amazon's gross merchandise volume (GMV) could reach $2.55 trillion, with potential revenue of $625 billion if the platform's commission rate increases to 25% [19]. - With advancements in robotics and delivery optimization, e-commerce's free cash flow margin could rise to 8-10%, leading to a free cash flow of approximately $60 billion [19]. - Amazon's e-commerce business could be valued at around $2.4 trillion based on a 40x free cash flow multiple [19].