TSMC(US:TSM) Counterpoint Research·2025-12-11 01:42Core Insights - The article emphasizes the strong position of TSMC in the advanced semiconductor manufacturing sector, particularly in the smartphone AP-SoC market, with a projected 51% of shipments utilizing advanced processes by 2025 [4] - TSMC's revenue for Q3 2025 is expected to reach approximately $33.1 billion, driven by strong demand for AI GPUs and high-performance computing [8] - The global pure-play foundry revenue is projected to grow by 17% in 2025, primarily fueled by AI and high-performance computing chip demand [15] Group 1: TSMC's Market Position - TSMC is expected to capture over 75% of the advanced process smartphone SoC shipment share by 2025, with a year-on-year shipment growth of 27% [4] - The company is set to maintain a leading position in advanced process manufacturing, with a utilization rate above 90% for its cutting-edge nodes [19] - TSMC's market share in the global foundry market is projected to rise to 35%, with revenue growth exceeding 30% due to large-scale AI chip orders [22] Group 2: Advanced Process Nodes - The 2nm node is anticipated to contribute over 10% of TSMC's revenue by 2027, despite only accounting for 1% in 2025 [15] - TSMC's N3 and N5 nodes are expected to remain fully utilized, driven by strong AI demand and flagship smartphone sales [29] - The introduction of the N2 process in late 2025 and the A16 in late 2026 will further strengthen TSMC's partnerships with clients in advanced technology [26] Group 3: Financial Performance - TSMC's Q3 2025 revenue is projected to exceed previous guidance, reflecting robust demand for 3nm and sustained high utilization of 4/5nm nodes [8] - The company is expected to double its AI-related revenue by 2025, supported by ongoing investments in advanced process nodes [32] - TSMC's financial results highlight the resilience of the semiconductor and AI industries, with expectations of outperforming overall industry performance in the coming years [32]