谈一谈这轮养殖超级下行周期

Core Viewpoint - The current downcycle in the pig industry is prolonged and complicated due to unprecedented situations, including simultaneous production efficiency improvements and a broad price decline [3][4]. Group 1: Production Efficiency and Costs - The African swine fever (ASF) drastically reduced production efficiency, pushing costs above 15 yuan per pig, but efforts have restored efficiency to pre-ASF levels, with leading companies like Muyuan achieving even better results [5][6]. - The decline in the number of breeding sows has been about 15% from the peak in 2021, yet pig prices remain at a decade low, indicating a significant disconnect between production capacity and market prices [6]. - Future improvements in production efficiency will be challenging, with Muyuan's cost reduction target for next year only at 0.5 yuan, suggesting a solid decline in actual production capacity [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Price Trends - The current downcycle is accompanied by a prolonged period of declining prices, with grain prices returning to a decade low and wages stagnating or declining, which discourages exits from the industry [7][8]. - The exit of high-cost producers has been gradual, with those operating at costs above 20 yuan being eliminated in 2021, and those above 14 yuan in 2023, while the current cycle is targeting producers with costs above 12 yuan [8]. - The capital-backed large-scale farming groups face significant challenges in exiting the market, making policy interventions aimed at this group crucial for industry capacity reduction [8][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The current downcycle is nearing its end, with expectations that the capacity reduction will conclude by the end of Q1 or early Q2 next year, marking the end of the downtrend that began in 2021 [10][13]. - Pig prices are at a 12-year low, indicating limited downside potential, and the expectation is for prices to start rising as the capacity reduction concludes [14][16]. - Projections suggest that pig prices could range from 11.5 to 20 yuan throughout 2024, with a conservative average of 13.5 to 14 yuan, potentially leading to record profits for companies like Muyuan [17][19][26].