JP MORGAN CHASE(US:JPM) 美股IPO·2025-12-13 11:14Core Viewpoint - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, supports Kevin Warsh for the position of Federal Reserve Chair, warning that Kevin Hassett may be too compliant with the White House's interest rate reduction desires, potentially harming the Fed's independence and leading to increased long-term borrowing costs [2][3]. Group 1: Dimon's Analysis - Dimon argues that if Hassett is elected, he is likely to quickly lower short-term interest rates to align with President Trump's economic demands, but the Fed can only control short-term rates while long-term rates are determined by the market [4]. - Concerns arise that aggressive rate cuts under Hassett could ignite inflation expectations, causing long-term rates, such as the 10-year Treasury yield, to rise due to investor sell-offs [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Since media reports in late November indicated Hassett as a frontrunner, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has increased from 4.0% to 4.2%, reflecting market pricing of the associated risks [5]. - There is growing anxiety among bond market traders regarding inflation, as indicated by a rise in the 5-year forward inflation swap rate, which recently increased by 0.06 percentage points to a one-month high [5]. Group 3: Political Dynamics - Concerns about Hassett's political ties have been voiced by senior investors managing a $30 trillion U.S. Treasury market, questioning his close alignment with Trump and its potential impact on the credibility of monetary policy [7]. - President Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with current Fed Chair Jerome Powell's reluctance to implement significant rate cuts, emphasizing loyalty and willingness to lower rates as key criteria for his selection [8]. Group 4: Candidate Profiles - Kevin Hassett is viewed as a top contender, having publicly supported aggressive rate cuts and previously suggested that the reduction should be double the current level, although he claims to uphold central bank independence [10]. - Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor and economist at the Hoover Institution, has received backing from Wall Street figures like Dimon, despite his past criticisms of the Fed and being perceived as overly hawkish before the 2008 financial crisis [10].