SWHY(SZ:000166) 申万宏源宏观·2025-12-14 09:24Group 1 - The article discusses the emergence of "jobless growth" and "K-shaped recovery" in the U.S. economy since mid-2025, questioning whether the economy can escape these characteristics in 2026 [2][5][89] - "Jobless growth" refers to a situation where economic growth occurs without corresponding job creation, with non-farm payrolls declining to an average of 18,000 per month from June to August 2025, significantly below historical non-recession averages [2][6][89] - The "K-shaped economy" is characterized by a divergence in consumption, employment, wages, and wealth, where high-income households experience significantly higher consumption growth compared to low-income households [2][23][89] Group 2 - The causes of the "K-shaped economy" are identified as economic slowdown, monetary easing, the impact of Trump's policies, and a structural bull market in U.S. stocks [3][50][74] - The article highlights that the labor market has become "looser," with low-wage groups being the first to feel the economic downturn and the last to benefit from recovery, indicating a structural imbalance in income and wealth distribution [3][50][62] - Long-term trends show that income and wealth inequality in the U.S. began in the 1980s, with real labor income growth lagging behind productivity growth, reflecting the rise of capital and technology over labor [3][77][110] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the difficulty in bridging the "K-shaped gap," questioning whether the economy will experience inclusive growth or a recession that erases wealth [4][90][110] - Historical examples of "jobless recoveries" are provided, illustrating that after past recessions, unemployment rates continued to rise despite economic recovery, with the path to recovery typically involving sustained demand expansion and tightening labor markets [4][90][91] - The article suggests that the U.S. economy in 2026 may transition from "jobless growth" to "low employment growth," but the characteristics of the "K-shaped economy" may not significantly change due to a persistently weak labor market [4][90][98]