华尔街投行：明年更大的风险不是“美国衰退导致市场崩盘”，而是“市场崩盘导致美国衰退”

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street strategists are advising clients to shift investment focus from "Tech Giants" to traditional cyclical sectors such as healthcare, industrials, energy, and finance by 2026, driven by doubts about the sustainability of tech valuations and optimism about the U.S. economic outlook [1][3][4]. Investment Shift - A consensus is forming on Wall Street that the tech giants, which have led the bull market, may step back, with a market rotation becoming the new investment theme for 2026 [3]. - Major firms like Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley are recommending a greater focus on traditional sectors rather than tech stocks like Nvidia and Amazon [3][4]. - Concerns have risen as earnings reports from AI bellwethers like Oracle and Broadcom failed to meet high market expectations, leading to a shift in investor sentiment [3][4]. Market Performance - Since November 20, the Russell 2000 small-cap index has risen by 11%, while the "Tech Giants" index's gains were only half of that [3]. - The S&P 500 equal-weighted index has outperformed its market-cap-weighted counterpart, indicating a broader market rotation [5]. Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts a 2.5% GDP growth for the U.S. in 2026, higher than the market consensus of 2.0%, suggesting further upside for cyclical sectors [3][7]. - The report emphasizes that the market has not fully priced in the potential economic acceleration expected in 2026 [7][8]. Sector Opportunities - Goldman Sachs highlights non-residential construction stocks as having significant potential, as they have underperformed due to weak earnings but are expected to improve by 2026 [9]. - The earnings growth for the "S&P 493" (excluding the Tech Giants) is projected to accelerate from 7% this year to 9% by 2026, while the Tech Giants' contribution to S&P 500 earnings is expected to decrease from 50% to 46% [9]. Risks - Key risks for cyclical stocks include disappointing economic growth and a potential decline in construction activity for non-residential construction companies [10]. - A sharp rise in interest rates could also pose a threat, as historical data suggests that significant increases in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields can lead to market sell-offs [10].