博通市值，三天大跌20000亿

Core Viewpoint - Broadcom's stock price has dropped approximately 18% from recent highs, primarily following the release of its Q4 earnings and guidance, despite significant revenue growth. The decline is attributed to management's comments regarding the dilution of profit margins due to increasing AI revenue [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4, Broadcom reported a revenue increase of 28% year-over-year, reaching slightly above $18 billion, with semiconductor solutions revenue growing by 35% and infrastructure software revenue by 19% [1]. - AI semiconductor revenue surged by 74% year-over-year in Q4, with expectations for this growth to accelerate in Q1 of FY2026, potentially doubling to $8.2 billion [1][2]. Group 2: Profitability and Margins - Management anticipates a decline in gross margin by about one percentage point in Q1 due to the increasing share of AI revenue, with adjusted EBITDA expected to be around 67% of revenue, down from 68% in Q4 [2]. - Non-AI semiconductor revenue is expected to remain flat compared to the previous year, indicating that growth is heavily reliant on AI products, which have lower profit margins [2]. Group 3: Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - Broadcom generated $26.9 billion in free cash flow in FY2025, returning $17.5 billion to shareholders, including $11.1 billion in dividends and $6.4 billion in stock buybacks [2]. - The company recently increased its quarterly dividend by 10% to $0.65 per share, although these figures may appear less impressive against its $1.6 trillion market capitalization [2]. Group 4: Valuation Concerns - As of the writing, Broadcom's stock price is approximately $340 per share, with a projected P/E ratio of about 36. Maintaining gross margins and sustaining rapid growth in AI business will be crucial for justifying this valuation [3].