台积电的产能隐忧

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses TSMC's strategic adjustments in response to the booming demand for AI chips, highlighting the challenges faced by its Kumamoto factory in Japan, which is experiencing low capacity utilization and ongoing losses. TSMC plans to shift its focus from mature processes to advanced 2nm technology to better align with market demands and improve profitability [1][2][3]. Group 1: TSMC's Capacity Adjustments - TSMC's Chairman, C.C. Wei, has initiated a global capacity review to optimize production, particularly in light of the underperformance of the Kumamoto factory [1][3]. - The Kumamoto factory, originally planned to produce 6nm chips, is now set to pivot towards 2nm production due to ongoing losses and low demand for mature processes [2][6]. - TSMC's 6nm capacity utilization in Taiwan has dropped below 70%, prompting the need for a strategic shift to advanced processes [6][12]. Group 2: Market Demand and Competition - The demand for AI chips is exceptionally high, with major companies like Nvidia and AMD increasing orders from TSMC, which has led to optimistic revenue projections of up to NT$3.7 trillion for the year [1][2][10]. - TSMC faces competition from China's mature process technology, which has impacted its capacity utilization rates, particularly in the automotive sector [2][3]. - The Japanese government is also investing in a competing 2nm wafer fab, which could create a competitive landscape for TSMC in securing client orders and government subsidies [8][12]. Group 3: Financial Implications and Future Plans - TSMC's shift to 2nm technology may require an investment increase from over $10 billion to more than $25 billion, raising concerns about the financial implications of this transition [7][12]. - The company is actively selling idle equipment from older fabs to free up space for advanced process technologies, indicating a strategic move to enhance production efficiency [10][11]. - TSMC's global expansion plans include acquiring additional land in Arizona for new 2nm facilities, reflecting its commitment to meeting strong market demand [12].