SWHY(SZ:000166) 申万宏源宏观·2025-12-17 03:19Overview - The unemployment rate in the US rose to 4.6% in November, exceeding market expectations, while non-farm payrolls showed a slight increase of 64,000 jobs, against a forecast of 50,000 [1][6][10] - The labor participation rate increased to 62.5%, slightly above the expected 62.4% [1][6] Structure - The rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6% reflects temporary layoffs and improvements in labor supply, with the government’s "deferred resignation" plan contributing to job losses in October [2][20] - The unemployment rate is close to triggering the "Sam Rule," with the critical point being 4.7% [2][27] - The credibility of the November unemployment data is questioned due to a low response rate of 64% in household surveys [2][27] Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in January 2026 is uncertain and will depend on December's economic data [3][35] - Short-term demand remains weak due to tariff impacts, government shutdowns, and AI effects, but labor supply may contract further, leading to a gradual rebalancing of the job market by 2026 [3][32] - The Federal Reserve's confidence may be bolstered by stronger-than-expected retail sales data, which could influence their decision on interest rates [3][35]