除去AI，衰退边缘（国金宏观钟天）

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a "weak labor supply" is misleading; without the broad contributions of AI, the US economy is essentially on the brink of recession [4][21]. Group 1: Labor Market Dynamics - The US labor market is characterized by a peculiar balance of weak supply and demand, leading to a rising unemployment rate [4]. - The unemployment rate is becoming a critical indicator for observing the US economy, with a notable increase expected in the latter half of 2025 [5]. - The labor supply is not significantly impacted by illegal immigration, as the net inflow of immigrants has nearly stagnated [5]. - A "K-shaped" distribution is observed, where labor supply and demand are growing rapidly in deep red states, while blue states, which are more sensitive to economic changes, are experiencing a contraction in employment levels [5]. Group 2: Employment Trends - The non-farm payroll employment structure remains unbalanced, heavily reliant on the education and healthcare sectors, with minimal growth in other private sectors [10]. - A significant reduction in government employment due to a buyout program has led to the lowest year-on-year growth rate since May 2021 [11]. - The volatility in employment figures reflects broader economic uncertainties, impacting the "service-employment-income-consumption" chain [15]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The rising unemployment rate, including both U3 and U6 metrics, raises concerns about how to limit its further increase [7]. - The Federal Reserve's confidence in not seeing a further rise in unemployment by 2026 is questioned, especially as the current unemployment rate of 4.564% exceeds previous forecasts [7]. - Factors influencing the suppression of unemployment include the relative position to "neutral interest rates," the resolution of policy uncertainties, and the anticipated decline in labor supply [8]. Group 4: Wage Growth and Consumer Impact - Wage growth has slipped to 3.5%, presenting challenges to consumer purchasing power despite real wage growth remaining positive [17]. - The inflation in non-residential services and goods is contributing to a greater strain on residents' purchasing power [17]. Group 5: Future Economic Outlook - The expectation for interest rate cuts in the first half of 2026 is becoming more optimistic, but the limited impact of previous rate cuts on employment raises concerns [21]. - The overall economic condition, excluding AI contributions, suggests that the US economy is nearing a recession, with ongoing pressures on employment demand [21].