SWHY(SZ:000166) 申万宏源宏观·2025-12-18 06:51Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the technological revolution is irreversible, supported by China's vast market, which allows for multiple rounds of trial and error, forming a complete industrial and supply chain that is resilient to external fluctuations [6][8]. Economic Outlook - In 2026, the economy is expected to enter a "non-typical recovery" phase characterized by "stable volume and rising prices," where prices shift from a downward spiral to a moderate recovery, leading to improved corporate profits and micro-level confidence [6]. - Structural differentiation will continue, with significant disparities in policy support across different economic sectors, resulting in an unbalanced recovery [6]. A-Share Market Insights - Instead of focusing on "value re-evaluation," it is more pertinent to discuss "capital rebalancing." The market has been overly pessimistic about fundamentals, with the overall A-share yield exceeding government bond yields by 100 basis points, indicating a severe mispricing [7]. - Four key events have shifted market expectations: changes in the policy environment post-September 2024, the emergence of DeepSeek shifting investment focus from macro to micro, U.S. tariff policies raising concerns about non-U.S. capital stability, and discussions on "anti-involution" leading to a shift of fixed-income funds towards equity assets [8]. Technological Revolution and Investment Opportunities - The article expresses optimism regarding the AI bubble, asserting that the fourth technological revolution will not be halted by short-term market fluctuations. China's large consumer market allows for extensive trial and error, leading to substantial industrial and supply chain development [8][9]. - As the "capital rebalancing" process deepens in 2026, opportunities in the A-share market are expected to emerge, driven by the non-typical economic recovery and the new wave of technological revolution [9].