Haitong Securities(SH:600837) 国泰海通证券研究·2025-12-18 14:09Market Performance - Global indices experienced a slight increase last week, with the MSCI Global down by 0.3%, MSCI Developed Markets down by 0.3%, and MSCI Emerging Markets up by 0.3% [1] - The Hang Seng Index's volatility reached its lowest level since 2022, while the Chinese technology sector saw gains, contrasting with significant pullbacks in developed market technology stocks [1] Earnings Expectations - Hong Kong's earnings expectations were marginally revised downwards, with the Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS forecast adjusted from 2079 to 2060 [2] - In contrast, the S&P 500's 2025 EPS forecast remained stable at 273, and the Eurozone STOXX 50's forecast was maintained at 330 [2] Economic Outlook - Economic indicators showed a rebound in major markets, with the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the US, Europe, and China all rising, supported by factors such as anticipated Fed rate cuts and improved service sector performance in Europe [2] Capital Flows - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in December and restart bond purchases at a rate of $40 billion per month [3] - Market liquidity tightened, with the SOFR-OIS spread widening, while capital flows were primarily directed towards China, the US, Japan, India, and South Korea [3]