CTG DUTY-FREE(SH:601888) BambooWorks·2025-12-19 10:27Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the competitive struggle within the Chinese duty-free industry, particularly focusing on China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation (China Duty Free) and its subsidiary, Sunrise Duty Free, amid declining revenues and profits in the sector [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - A rare internal conflict occurred in the Chinese duty-free industry, showcasing the pressures faced by leading companies as they compete for market share [2]. - China Duty Free's aggressive tactics to secure the operating rights for duty-free shops at Shanghai airports reflect deeper structural issues within the industry, including changing consumer preferences and increased competition from local brands [6][8]. - The duty-free market in China was valued at 716 billion yuan last year, but saturation of airport and railway duty-free resources has led companies to explore urban duty-free stores in first-tier cities [8]. Group 2: Company Performance - China Duty Free's revenue and net profit have both declined, with a projected revenue drop of 16% to 56.5 billion yuan and a net profit decrease of 36% to 4.32 billion yuan in 2024 [6][7]. - In the first three quarters of the year, the company reported a 7.34% year-on-year revenue decline to 39.9 billion yuan, with net profit down 22% to 3 billion yuan [7]. - Despite securing the operating rights for two major airports, the market remains skeptical about the company's ability to reverse its declining sales and profits [5][8]. Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - China Duty Free holds a dominant market share of 78.7% in the Chinese duty-free and travel retail market, significantly ahead of its closest competitor, which has a 7.1% share [9]. - The recent establishment of Hainan as a free trade zone may provide new growth opportunities for the company, potentially revitalizing its core market performance [9]. - Analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook, with expectations that the revenue decline may narrow in the fourth quarter, and the company could return to profit growth [9].