【招商电子】美光FY26Q1跟踪报告:业绩及指引大超预期,指引25-28年HBM CAGR达40%

Core Viewpoint - Micron's FY26Q1 financial results exceeded guidance, showcasing significant revenue and margin growth driven by strong demand in AI and data center markets [3][4][22]. Financial Performance - FY26Q1 revenue reached $13.64 billion, up 57% year-over-year and 21% quarter-over-quarter, surpassing guidance of $12.5 billion [4][34]. - Gross margin was 56.8%, an increase of 11.1 percentage points year-over-year and 11 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, also exceeding guidance [4][34]. - Net profit margin stood at 40.2%, with EPS at $4.78, reflecting a 167% year-over-year increase [4][34]. Product Segmentation - DRAM revenue was $10.8 billion, up 69% year-over-year and 20% quarter-over-quarter, driven by a 20% price increase [5][35]. - NAND revenue reached $2.7 billion, up 22% year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter, with mid-single-digit percentage growth in bit shipments [5][35]. - Cloud storage revenue hit $5.28 billion, doubling year-over-year, while core data center revenue was $2.38 billion, up 4% year-over-year [5][36]. Market Outlook - The demand for HBM is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40%, with the total addressable market (TAM) expected to reach $100 billion by 2028 [6][26]. - Data center and HBM revenues reached record highs in FY26Q1, with expectations for continued strong demand in 2025 and beyond [6][29]. - The company anticipates DRAM and NAND bit demand growth of over 20% in 2025, with supply constraints expected to persist into 2026 [7][33]. Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure for FY2026 has been raised to $20 billion, primarily to support HBM and 1-Gamma technology ramp-up [8][27]. - The company is investing in global manufacturing capabilities to address ongoing supply-demand imbalances [27][39]. Operational Efficiency - The company reported an operating profit of $6.4 billion, with an operating margin of 47%, reflecting strong cost control and product mix optimization [34][38]. - Cash flow from operations reached $8.4 billion, with free cash flow at $3.9 billion, setting a quarterly record [34][39]. Strategic Positioning - Micron is leveraging its leadership in advanced technologies like HBM and 1-Gamma DRAM to capitalize on AI-driven demand [24][26]. - The company is enhancing its competitive position through strategic partnerships and long-term supply agreements with key customers [49].