AI热潮掩盖了华尔街“老登交易”的大年：多元化回报创多年新高

Core Insights - The traditional stock-bond balanced portfolio has recorded double-digit gains this year, marking its best performance since 2019, yet funds continue to flow into concentrated large-cap tech stocks and thematic trades [1][2] - Despite the strong performance of diversified strategies in 2025, investor focus remains on AI-driven narratives, leading to a neglect of balanced investment strategies [3][4] Diversification Strategy Performance - In 2025, diversified investment strategies achieved their strongest performance in years, but this success has largely gone unnoticed amid the AI hype [3][7] - BCA Research's chief strategist Marko Papic emphasizes that the key to success in 2025 lies in global diversification rather than solely focusing on stocks [4] Fund Flows and Market Trends - According to JPMorgan data, balanced and multi-asset fund categories, including public risk parity funds and 60/40 portfolios, have experienced capital outflows for 13 consecutive quarters until a mild rebound this fall [5] - Funds are increasingly moving towards concentrated large-cap tech exposures and thematic trades, as well as direct hedging tools like gold [6] Market Rotation and Stock Performance - This year has seen a market rotation, with value-oriented stock ETFs attracting over $56 billion in inflows, marking the second-largest annual inflow since 2000 [9] - International stocks have rebounded due to favorable fiscal reforms and a weaker dollar, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks in the fourth quarter [10] Future Outlook - Some strategists believe this shift will continue into 2026, with expectations of expanding U.S. corporate earnings and strong performance from small-cap and international stocks [11] - JPMorgan's David Lebovitz is leaning towards emerging market bonds and UK government bonds while maintaining selective exposure to U.S. stocks and AI stocks [12] Cautionary Signals - There are indications of potential bubbles, with Bank of America noting a strong buying impulse in 2025, the second strongest in nearly a century [13] - Manulife John Hancock Investments' Emily Roland warns of increasing disconnection between market performance and fundamentals, suggesting that this year has been a dream year for short-term investors [14]