付鹏：决定2026全球资产涨跌的关键—AI“高速路”上，真有车跑吗?

Core Viewpoint - The current core contradiction in the AI industry is that while the infrastructure has been built, the real challenge lies in whether enterprise-level applications can be realized and generate profits by 2026 [2][19]. Group 1: AI Industry Insights - The year 2026 will be a critical year for investors to assess whether companies like Tesla can prove their value as AI application platforms rather than just automotive companies [2][18]. - If AI is proven to be a bubble, global stock markets, particularly the US market, will face severe volatility, as they are highly interconnected [2][19]. - The focus should be on whether the asset side (AI) can generate real returns, as issues on the asset side will render adjustments on the liability side ineffective [3][20]. Group 2: Economic and Market Dynamics - The linkage between productivity, production relations, and institutional order is crucial, with the stock market reflecting total factor productivity (TFP) rather than just macroeconomic indicators [4][6]. - Historical data shows that the long-term upward trend of the US stock market is driven by improvements in economic efficiency rather than short-term fluctuations [7]. - The market is currently in a phase of "going from broad investment to identifying true winners," as seen in the significant valuation corrections in 2022 [8][9]. Group 3: Future Projections - The market is at a pivotal point where it must determine whether the AI infrastructure can lead to economic growth or if it will become a liability [15][16]. - The upcoming year will serve as a test for AI's transition from productivity to production relations, with Tesla being a key indicator of this process [18][19]. - There are two potential paths for the future: one where AI fails to deliver on its promises, leading to a market collapse, and another where it successfully transforms production relations, creating systemic opportunities [21].