中国英伟达们相继上市，但对国产GPU的考验才刚开始

Core Viewpoint - The recent IPOs of domestic GPU companies like Moer and Muxi have sparked significant interest and volatility in the market, raising questions about whether the domestic GPU industry is driven by genuine commercial potential or merely investor sentiment [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Muxi's stock surged by 700% on its debut, reaching a market capitalization of over 330 billion yuan, while Moer achieved a 425% increase on its first day [2]. - The rapid rise of these companies has led to a dichotomy among investors, with some backing "Moer-like" companies and others missing out on these opportunities [2]. - The domestic GPU market is characterized by a unique narrative shaped by China's geopolitical context, which complicates the assessment of true market capabilities [2][6]. Group 2: Investment Logic - Investors are grappling with the high valuations of these companies, as the secondary market may not support such inflated prices if growth does not materialize [3][4]. - The investment logic suggests that if one believes in the potential of the domestic GPU sector, investing in the top companies is a sound strategy [7]. - The historical context shows that from 2021 to 2023, many domestic GPU companies faced existential threats, making investments during that period particularly risky [6]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Nvidia dominates the global GPU market with over 90% share, presenting a significant challenge for domestic companies trying to carve out their niche [2][8]. - Moer and Muxi's projected revenues for 2024 indicate high price-to-sales (P/S) ratios of 68 and 28, respectively, which are unsustainable compared to the global semiconductor industry's average P/S of around 10 [8]. - Different GPU companies are pursuing varied technological and market strategies, with Moer focusing on AI training and inference chips, while Muxi targets data centers and high-performance computing [10]. Group 4: Ecosystem Challenges - The primary challenge for domestic GPU companies lies in building a competitive ecosystem, as Nvidia's CUDA framework creates a significant barrier to entry [11][12]. - Other companies are attempting to create compatibility with CUDA, but this approach does not fundamentally disrupt Nvidia's dominance [12]. - Google’s TPU is noted as a rare example of successfully overcoming the CUDA ecosystem, highlighting the difficulty for startups to replicate such success [15]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The real challenges for these domestic GPU companies will begin post-IPO, as they must demonstrate sustainable revenue to justify their high valuations [17]. - The narrative that has driven their stock prices may not hold in the long term, as the market will demand tangible results rather than just compelling stories [17].