美银Hartnett：市场聚焦美股大涨“迎新”可能性，唯一风险是“市场过于乐观”

Core Viewpoint - The market is betting on accelerated economic growth in 2026 due to interest rate cuts, tax reductions, and tariff reductions, leading to significant inflows into U.S. stocks, which reached the second-highest weekly inflow on record [1][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Inflows - The latest data shows a weekly inflow of $98.2 billion into global stocks, with U.S. stocks attracting $77.9 billion, marking the second-largest weekly inflow on record [5]. - There has been a significant outflow of $43.9 billion from cash assets, the largest since April of this year, indicating a notable increase in market risk appetite [8]. - The Bank of America’s bull-bear sentiment indicator has risen to 8.5, signaling an extreme level of optimism in the market, which may lead to short-term adjustment risks [3][14]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Strategies - The expectation of fiscal and monetary easing is likely to increase the probability of market gains next year, supported by continued interest rate cuts and a potential "QE lite" policy [3]. - A macro trading framework for the first half of 2026 suggests that if CPI falls to 2% and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield drops to around 3.5%, risk assets could receive significant support [9]. Group 3: Structural Risks - Despite a positive macro outlook, structural risks are beginning to accumulate, including high margin debt growth and elevated hedge fund leverage, reminiscent of market conditions in 2000 and 2007 [18]. - Global long-term yields are on the rise, posing a risk that could increase bond market volatility and threaten the stock market, even if the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates [19].