Nvidia(US:NVDA) 美股研究社·2025-12-22 13:45Core Viewpoint - The market has not yet peaked, particularly led by Nvidia, which stands at the forefront of the AI revolution and technological breakthroughs. Its current dynamic P/E ratio is only 24 times, suggesting that declaring a peak is premature [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The concentration of funds in leading tech stocks indicates that the bull market has not yet spread to other sectors, which could be a positive sign for index investors [2]. - If the global economy avoids recession and the investment heat for risk assets remains, passive investments through index funds and ETFs may support Nvidia's stock price [2]. - Analysts express concerns about the unprecedented market phenomenon where the combined market value of the "seven tech giants" accounts for 36% of the S&P 500 index, a historical high [1]. Group 2: Nvidia's Performance - Nvidia achieved a remarkable feat by exceeding revenue and earnings expectations for 12 consecutive quarters, with revenue and net profit growing at double-digit rates [5]. - The company's data center business revenue reached $43 billion, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 65%, indicating strong market demand for Nvidia's computing power [6]. - Nvidia's gross margin for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 was 73.6%, reflecting its market dominance and exceptional profitability [8]. Group 3: Growth Potential - Nvidia's gaming business generated $4.3 billion in revenue, growing 30% year-on-year, but there is still room for improvement compared to competitors like AMD, which saw a 73% growth in gaming revenue [10]. - The global PC gaming market is projected to grow from approximately $62 billion in 2024 to $130 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.5% [10]. Group 4: Valuation Insights - Analysts expect Nvidia's diluted earnings per share to reach $7.49 in fiscal year 2027, a 60% increase, with revenue projected at $317 billion, a 49% increase [12]. - Nvidia's PEG ratio is currently 1.03, which is 40% lower than the industry median of 1.71, indicating that the stock is undervalued despite its leadership position [14]. - The current valuation of Nvidia, with a premium of only 3% over peers, does not reflect its strong performance and growth potential [6][8].