GF SECURITIES(SZ:000776) 摩尔投研精选·2025-12-23 10:50Group 1 - The core narrative for incremental capital in A-shares for 2025 includes regulatory and insurance capital mitigating downside risks, while domestic deposit migration and overseas dollar overflow open up upside potential for the index [1] - The outlook for 2026 is expected to be an enhanced version of 2025, with continued support from insurance capital and regulation, alongside anticipated inflows from residents' deposits (especially from high-net-worth individuals) and foreign capital [1] - Factors supporting the resident side include the mitigation of downside risks by insurance capital and regulation, a gradual reduction in the impact on residents' balance sheets, further liquidity of residents' funds in 2026, and limited high-yield assets competing with deposits in this cycle [1] Group 2 - On the foreign capital side, the overall "cake" of global funds is expected to grow, with downward pressure on the dollar and an anticipated bottoming improvement in A-share fundamentals by 2026 [2]