Amazon(US:AMZN) 美股研究社·2025-12-23 09:55Core Insights - Amazon (AMZN) has recently experienced several new catalysts, with significant movements from "super investors" indicating a mixed sentiment towards the stock [1][3][18] Group 1: Super Investor Activity - A total of 25 "super investors" hold Amazon shares, making it the fifth most held stock among their portfolios, with an average portfolio allocation of over 2.1% [3] - The average holding cost for these investors is approximately $220, closely aligning with the current market valuation of $227, suggesting a strong correlation between their positions and the stock price [5][18] - Among the top ten fund managers, there is a notable split in trading actions, with five increasing their positions, four reducing, and one maintaining their holdings [6][7] Group 2: Financial Projections and Valuation - Analysts have projected Amazon's total return on investment (ROI) over the next five years under various growth and price-earnings (P/E) scenarios, with the most optimistic scenario suggesting a total return of around 100% [8][11] - The expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for Amazon's earnings per share (EPS) over the next five years is approximately 14.6%, although analysts believe this may be overly optimistic, estimating a more conservative CAGR of around 12% [10][11] - The projected EPS for fiscal year 2025 is $7.06, with a year-over-year growth of 27.66%, and a forward P/E ratio of 32.20 [11] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Despite strong performance from AWS, there are concerns regarding its competitive position against rivals like Microsoft Azure, which is experiencing faster growth [12] - Amazon may face challenges with profit margins, as indicated by a projected decline in implied profit margin from 11.6% to 9.9% in the upcoming quarter [13][16] - The company is actively developing its own AI chips, which could serve as a cost-effective alternative to Nvidia's chips, potentially supporting growth and profitability [16]