资深科技分析师：英伟达真的很便宜

Core Viewpoint - Bernstein's report indicates that Nvidia's valuation has dropped to a historical low, with the expected price-to-earnings ratio falling below 25 times, representing a rare discount relative to the semiconductor industry. Despite recent stagnation in stock price, earnings continue to be revised upward, and new architectures like Blackwell are on the horizon. Analysts believe this is an excellent buying opportunity, with a target price set at $275 [1][3][6]. Group 1 - Nvidia's stock price has stagnated since July, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 30%, underperforming the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) which rose by 38%. This stagnation, coupled with rising earnings, has led to a significant drop in the expected price-to-earnings ratio (P/FE) to below 25 times [3][5]. - Analysts from Bernstein assert that Nvidia is currently extremely "cheap" in both absolute and relative valuation terms, trading at about a 13% discount compared to the overall semiconductor industry, placing it in the first percentile of the past decade [5][6]. - Historical data shows that investors buying Nvidia when the price-to-earnings ratio is below 25 times typically see substantial returns, with an average one-year return exceeding 150%, and no negative returns during such periods [5][6]. Group 2 - Bernstein's analysis indicates that a 25 times expected price-to-earnings ratio places Nvidia's valuation in the 11th percentile of the past decade, marking it as an absolute low. Notably, there have only been 13 trading days in the past ten years where Nvidia's price relative to the SOX index was cheaper than it is now [6]. - Addressing market concerns regarding the sustainability of AI capital expenditures, analysts note that current capital expenditure intentions remain healthy, and the competitive narrative of GPUs versus ASICs is regaining momentum. Upcoming events like CES and GTC are expected to provide further catalysts, with new products based on the Rubin architecture set to launch [6]. - Bernstein reaffirms its "outperform" rating for Nvidia, setting a target price of $275, suggesting that current market expectations may be too low given the company's guidance of over $500 billion from Blackwell/Rubin [6].