TSMC(US:TSM) Counterpoint Research·2025-12-25 06:14Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry has officially entered the "Wafer Foundry 2.0" era, characterized by deep integration of manufacturing, packaging, and testing, driven by the global AI boom, leading to higher quality growth [4][8]. Group 1: Market Overview - The global wafer foundry 2.0 market revenue is expected to grow by 17% year-on-year in Q3 2025, reaching $84.8 billion, primarily driven by the demand for AI GPUs in front-end wafer manufacturing and advanced packaging [4][8]. - TSMC continues to lead the pure wafer foundry market with a 41% year-on-year revenue growth, supported by the ramp-up of 3nm chips for Apple's flagship smartphones and strong demand from AI accelerator customers like NVIDIA and AMD [7][8]. - Non-TSMC wafer foundries experienced a modest 6% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, indicating a diminishing effect from previous tariff-related orders, although local subsidy policies in China still provide some support [8][12]. Group 2: Segment Performance - Non-storage IDM manufacturers saw a brief recovery with a 4% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, led by a 14% increase from Texas Instruments [8][12]. - The OSAT industry continued its growth momentum with a 10% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3 2025, driven by strong demand for advanced packaging, particularly from companies like ASE and SPIL [8][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The overall wafer foundry 2.0 market revenue growth for 2025 is projected to be around 15%, with the pure wafer foundry market expected to grow by 26%, supported by ongoing shipments of AI GPUs and ASICs [10]. - TSMC's advanced packaging capabilities are anticipated to continue driving revenue growth into 2026, with a focus on NVIDIA's AI GPU platforms [9][10]. - The OSAT sector is expected to see a significant increase in advanced packaging capacity by 100% in 2026, with AI GPU and ASIC demand becoming the primary growth engines for OSAT manufacturers [12].