CM BANK(SH:600036) 招商银行研究·2025-12-25 09:27Core Viewpoint - The article presents a macroeconomic and capital market outlook for 2026, highlighting a stable growth trajectory for the U.S. economy, a cautious recovery in Europe, and potential challenges in Japan, while emphasizing the importance of monetary and fiscal policies in shaping market dynamics [1][2][3]. Economic Outlook - China's GDP growth is projected to reach 4.8% in 2026, driven by stable external demand, improved internal consumption, and price recovery [2]. - Exports are expected to grow by 5% in dollar terms, supported by easing international trade tensions and the resilience of China's industrial chain [2]. - Retail sales are forecasted to rise by 4.5%, bolstered by strong consumer policies, while fixed asset investment growth is anticipated to recover to 1.8% [2]. - Infrastructure and manufacturing investments are expected to grow by 6.5% and 4.6%, respectively, while real estate investment is projected to decline by 13.6% [2]. Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy is expected to become more proactive, with a target deficit rate maintained at 4.0%, corresponding to a deficit scale of 5.85 trillion yuan [3]. - The total fiscal expenditure is projected to be 43 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from the previous year, with potential for additional tools to be introduced based on economic conditions [3]. Monetary Policy - Monetary policy is anticipated to remain moderately accommodative, with a potential reduction in the OMO rate by 10 basis points to 1.3% and a reserve requirement ratio cut of 50 basis points [3]. - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to rise slightly to 1.8% in 2026, reflecting a balance between long-term growth and risk prevention [3][4]. Capital Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, driven by improved corporate performance and favorable liquidity conditions, while the bond market may experience fluctuations with a slight upward trend in yields [4]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is projected to decline to 4.0%, while the Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from a stable liquidity environment and a projected rise in the Hang Seng Index to around 29,000 points [4][5]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The strategy suggests a focus on equities, particularly in technology and growth sectors, while maintaining a defensive position in dividend stocks [6][7]. - The allocation to A-shares is recommended to be increased, while exposure to U.S. dollar bonds is suggested to be reduced [6]. A-share Market Dynamics - The A-share market is expected to experience a "slow bull" phase, with corporate earnings projected to improve, particularly in technology and high-end manufacturing sectors [4][42]. - The anticipated easing of U.S.-China trade tensions may lead to a recovery in export-oriented companies, while the technology sector is expected to remain a key driver of performance [42][48]. Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong market is projected to continue its slow bull trend, supported by earnings recovery and liquidity expansion, with a focus on dividend stocks as a defensive strategy [76][78]. - The Hang Seng Index is expected to see a valuation uplift, driven by inflows from domestic investors seeking yield in a low-interest-rate environment [76][78].