Goldman Sachs(US:GS) 美股IPO·2025-12-26 00:24Core Viewpoint - The focus of technology stocks is shifting from hardware speculation to a deeper examination of AI investment returns and market breadth as 2026 approaches, according to Goldman Sachs trader Callahan [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends and Performance - Despite the Nasdaq 100 index rising over 20% in 2025, it was not an easy year, with the "Magnificent 7" contributing approximately $3.5 trillion to market cap growth, a slowdown from $5.4 trillion in 2024 and $4.8 trillion in 2023 [3]. - Over 30% of the Nasdaq 100 components ended 2025 in decline, indicating significant internal market differentiation [3]. Group 2: AI Investment and Sustainability - Investors are increasingly focused on whether generative AI (GenAI) can deliver on its high capital expenditure promises over the next 12 months, with discussions centering on the sustainability of AI infrastructure spending, which could reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion annually by 2030 according to Nvidia [5] [6]. - Callahan outlined ten key questions that will dominate the technology stock narrative in 2026, addressing both sector rotations and fundamental macroeconomic and technological cycles [6]. Group 3: Key Questions for 2026 - The ten core questions include the direction of AI debates, the potential shift towards "physical AI" (robots, autonomous vehicles, smart glasses), and which companies will emerge as productivity winners [7]. - Other questions involve how software companies will repair valuations, the implications of GenAI-driven efficiency, and the potential cyclical turning points in housing and commercial real estate [7][8]. - The report also questions the future of large language models (LLMs) and their market dynamics, including the role of Chinese models and the potential for productization versus remaining in the "primitive intelligence" competition [8]. Group 4: Investment Strategies and Outlook - Callahan suggests that the Nasdaq 100 index's return outlook remains robust, with potential gains skewed towards the first half of 2026 due to recent market consolidation and low expectations surrounding AI spending sustainability [9]. - The investment theme for 2026 should focus on "expansion trades," where capital flows from crowded AI infrastructure stocks to other sectors, seeking "second derivatives" of AI that leverage cost reductions and new revenue streams [9].