Meta Platforms(US:META) 美股研究社·2025-12-26 12:27Core Viewpoint - Meta has shifted its long-term vision from the controversial metaverse strategy to focus on generative artificial intelligence and wearable augmented reality devices, marking a significant transformation since 2019 [3]. Financial Performance - Meta's latest financial report showed mixed results, with a market value drop of nearly $220 billion following a one-time tax expense of $16 billion, leading to an 83% decline in GAAP net profit and earnings per share of only $1.05, significantly below the expected $5.66 [4]. - Excluding one-time factors, adjusted net profit reached $18.64 billion, reflecting the company's strong operational capabilities, with revenue of $51.24 billion, exceeding market expectations by $1.83 billion and achieving a year-on-year growth of 26.2% [4]. Advertising Business - Meta's advertising business continues to perform strongly, driven by increased user engagement and commercialization efficiency, largely due to deep integration of artificial intelligence technology [5]. - The average cost of advertising has risen by approximately 10%, as advertisers are willing to pay more due to improved performance [5]. - User engagement on Instagram and Facebook has increased, contributing to the overall success of the advertising segment [5]. Capital Expenditure - Meta's capital expenditure reached a record high of $19.4 billion this quarter, primarily for acquiring NVIDIA H200/B200 chips to build large-scale data centers [5]. - Analysts note that the strategy of over-investing in AI is preferable to under-investing, as the risks of insufficient investment in the AI wave are deemed greater [5]. Strategic Adjustments - Meta has decisively abandoned its initial metaverse vision, which analysts believe was destined to fail, with cumulative losses in this sector reaching $73 billion since its inception in 2021 [6]. - The company plans to cut the budget for the metaverse division by about 30% in the fiscal year 2026, allowing it to focus on generative AI and wearable hardware [6]. - The launch of the Llama 4 AI model, which features a hybrid expert model capable of processing multiple data types, is a key development for Meta in the AI space [6]. Commercialization Strategy - Meta's approach to commercialization differs from competitors, as it has made the Llama 4 model available as an open-source framework, attracting global developers for secondary development [6]. - The "Project Avocado," a high-end closed-source model for enterprise clients, is expected to drive significant breakthroughs in the AI sector for Meta [7]. Valuation Analysis - Meta's current valuation is relatively low, with a non-GAAP price-to-earnings ratio of 22.84, the lowest among major competitors, compared to Apple's 36.64 and Microsoft's 33.58 [9]. - Despite high capital expenditures, the cash flow generated from AI technology investments remains stable, with a free cash flow yield of only 2.7% [9]. - Meta's application matrix, comprising vast user data and strong network effects, is considered a valuable intangible asset, positioning the company for substantial growth [9]. Future Growth Prospects - Analysts predict that as AI technology continues to integrate with advertising, exposure rates and pricing capabilities will improve, maintaining a high growth trajectory for the company [10]. - The WhatsApp application has finally achieved commercialization breakthroughs, contributing to revenue through effective advertising and enterprise messaging services [10]. - Meta's smart glasses have seen a 200% year-on-year growth, outperforming competitors like Apple and Google, indicating diverse commercialization opportunities [10]. - The company is expected to maintain a revenue compound annual growth rate of around 15% by 2030 [10]. Profitability Metrics - Meta's profitability metrics are impressive, with a gross margin of 82.01% and a net profit margin of 30.89%, ranking among the best in the industry [10]. - The company has effectively utilized its capital, achieving a return on equity (ROE) of 31.1% and a return on capital employed (ROCE) of 30.7% [11].