Micron Technology(US:MU) 是说芯语·2025-12-27 01:45Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a phase adjustment in technology iteration due to the imbalance of supply and demand in the global memory market and soaring prices. Samsung and SK Hynix have postponed their plans to cease DDR4 memory production from the end of 2025 to 2026 [1]. Group 1: Strategy Adjustment - Samsung and SK Hynix's decision to delay DDR4 production is not a sudden move; they had previously signaled to customers about gradually reducing DDR4 capacity starting in early 2024, with a complete stop planned between late 2025 and early 2026 [3]. - This strategy aligns with the semiconductor industry's logic of "technology iteration driving capacity upgrades," especially as major chip manufacturers like AMD and Intel are phasing out support for DDR4 [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The explosive growth of the AI industry has significantly increased the demand for HBM, with storage needs for AI servers exceeding traditional servers by more than three times. This shift has led manufacturers to allocate more capacity to HBM, severely constraining DDR4 production [4]. - The transition of Chinese DRAM suppliers to DDR5, driven by government subsidies, will result in a complete halt of DDR4 production by 2025, further exacerbating the global supply shortage [4]. Group 3: Price Movements - Since the beginning of 2025, the price of a 16GB DDR4 module has surged from 180-200 yuan to around 800 yuan by December, marking a cumulative increase of over 200%. There have been instances of older products surpassing the prices of newer DDR5, with some specifications showing price differences of up to 100% [4]. - Current inventory levels for DDR memory are critically low, with only 9 weeks of supply for PC and mobile devices and 11 weeks for server DDR memory, contributing to further price increases. It is projected that DDR contract prices will rise by 35% in Q4 2025 and continue to increase by 30% in Q1 2026 [4]. Group 4: Manufacturer Responses - In response to market conditions, SK Hynix has officially notified customers of the extension of DDR4 production until 2026 and plans to increase DDR4 capacity at its Wuxi factory to meet rising orders. Samsung will maintain stable DDR4 supply while focusing on advanced DRAM products [5]. - Unlike Samsung and SK Hynix, Micron is sticking to its original plan, with its DDR4 and LPDDR4 products entering the end-of-life phase and expected to cease shipments in the next 2-3 months [5]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - In the short term, the maintenance of DDR4 production by Samsung and SK Hynix is expected to alleviate supply tightness and somewhat curb price surges, but prices are likely to remain high due to significant supply gaps [6]. - Long-term, this adjustment does not alter the industry's trend towards advanced technologies like DDR5 and HBM; rather, it provides a buffer period for market transition. The continued focus on DDR4 by leading manufacturers may compress market space for domestic storage companies while allowing them time to mature their DDR5 technology and capacity [6].