2026年的特斯拉：电动车承压，AI接棒

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is betting on artificial intelligence and autonomous driving technology to redefine the future [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Tesla's stock price has increased by over 25% this year, surpassing the S&P 500 index's 18% gain, reaching an intraday all-time high of $498.83 in December [2] Group 2: Sales and Market Expectations - Despite pressure on electric vehicle sales, there are high hopes for Tesla's progress in autonomous taxi services, humanoid robots, and self-developed chips. Analyst Dan Ives predicts Tesla could reach a $3 trillion valuation after a "monster year," nearly double its current market value [4] - U.S. electric vehicle sales are expected to decline by 9%, with a similar 9% drop in China and a significant 39% plunge in the EU market [5][14] - Analysts believe investors are accustomed to Elon Musk's over-promises and will not overly worry as long as they see visible progress [6] Group 3: Robotaxi Network Progress - Tesla's robotaxi network is progressing far below expectations, with only about 160 vehicles currently operating, significantly less than Musk's promise of deploying in at least eight metropolitan areas [6][7] - The service offered in Austin and the San Francisco Bay Area is similar to that of Uber or Lyft, using Model Y vehicles equipped with the FSD system but still requiring employee supervision [8] - Analysts have mixed expectations for expansion by 2026, with some warning that Tesla's pace compared to competitors like Waymo remains unclear, potentially leading to stock price volatility [10] Group 4: Full Self-Driving (FSD) Software - The adoption rate of Tesla's FSD software is low, with only 12% of customers paying for it as of Q3. However, international expansion could change this, providing additional revenue and training data [12] - Tesla aims to offer FSD in the UAE by January, marking its first market in the Middle East, with hopes for regulatory approval in Europe by February or March [13] Group 5: Future Products and Technology - Tesla is set to begin production of humanoid robots and a new microchip, which could define its future. The humanoid robot market is estimated to reach $5 trillion by 2050 [17][18] - Musk has proposed selling the Optimus robot for around $30,000, which he believes could account for 80% of Tesla's value in the future [19] - The company faces challenges in designing the robot and sourcing components, with a prototype expected to be ready for demonstration by March [20][21] - The AI5 chip, planned for production by the end of 2026, is expected to significantly improve performance compared to the current AI4 chip [22][23] - Tesla's roadmap for 2026 includes producing new energy products and the long-awaited update of its next-generation sports car, with the all-electric Tesla Semi truck expected to enter mass production in the second half of 2026 after years of delays [24]