SWHY(SZ:000166) 申万宏源宏观·2025-12-27 16:42Group 1: Major Asset Classes & Overseas Events & Data - The COMEX silver price reached a historical high, increasing by 4.7% to $78.8 per ounce, while COMEX gold rose by 2.5% to $4546.2 per ounce during the Christmas market rally [2][30][80] - The S&P 500 index increased by 1.4%, with most developed and emerging market indices also showing gains. Notably, the Nikkei 225 and the Australian stock index rose by 2.5% and 1.7%, respectively [2][3] - The US Treasury General Account (TGA) balance decreased to $801.5 billion, and the net issuance of US debt fell, with a rolling net issuance of -$55.26 billion [2][43] - The US fiscal deficit for the calendar year 2025 reached $1.77 trillion, down from $1.95 trillion in the same period last year, with total expenditures at $7.79 trillion [48][80] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US GDP growth rate for Q3 was 4.3% (annualized), surpassing market expectations of 3.3%. This growth was primarily driven by strong consumer spending, which was influenced by a decline in the savings rate [61][80] - The unemployment claims for the week ending December 20 were 214,000, lower than expected, while the continuing claims were 1.923 million, exceeding market forecasts [64] - The US Treasury yields for 10-year bonds mostly declined, with the yield falling to 4.14% [15][19] Group 3: Currency and Commodity Markets - The US dollar index fell by 0.7% to 98.03, while other currencies appreciated against the dollar, including the euro and the British pound, which rose by 0.5% and 0.9%, respectively [22][28] - Most commodity prices declined, with WTI crude oil dropping by 4.4% to $56.7 per barrel and Brent crude oil down by 4.1% to $60.6 per barrel [30][31]