芯片通涨，来了？

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is set to increase advanced process pricing from 2026 to 2029 due to high demand driven by AI applications, with expectations of maintaining or slightly increasing performance in the traditionally weak first quarter of 2026 [2][3]. Group 1: Pricing Strategy - TSMC plans to raise advanced process prices by a single-digit percentage starting January 2026, reflecting increased production costs and high demand [2][4]. - Analysts predict a price increase of 3% to 10% for TSMC's advanced processes in 2026, with variations based on customer procurement levels [2][4]. Group 2: Capacity and Demand - TSMC's advanced process capacity is currently in high demand, with major clients like NVIDIA and AMD launching new platforms, contributing to a supply shortage [2][3]. - Despite the price increase, customers are actively reserving advanced process capacity to maintain a competitive edge in technology [3][4]. Group 3: Capital Expenditure - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2026 is projected to reach between $42 billion and $45 billion, marking a historical high [4][5]. - The company has already reported a capital expenditure of $29.39 billion for the first three quarters of 2023, with expectations for the fourth quarter to reach between $10.61 billion and $12.61 billion [4][5]. Group 4: Industry Context - Global semiconductor manufacturing capital expenditure is estimated to reach $160 billion in 2023, with a 3% year-over-year growth, primarily supported by TSMC and Micron's investments [5][6]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a "chip inflation" era, with rising prices across wafer foundry, advanced packaging, and memory sectors, potentially impacting consumer electronics demand [6][7].