罕见举动！特斯拉官网破天荒公布预测：Q4交付量恐“大跳水”

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is expected to face a significant decline in delivery volumes, with a projected 15% year-over-year drop in Q4 and an estimated annual delivery range of 1.6 to 1.65 million vehicles for 2025, marking an 8% decrease compared to the previous year, indicating a second consecutive year of declining sales [1][3][5]. Group 1: Delivery Projections - Analysts predict Tesla's Q4 delivery volume to be around 422,850 vehicles, a 15% decrease year-over-year, which is more pessimistic than Bloomberg's previous estimate of 445,061 vehicles, reflecting a 10% decline [3][5]. - For the full year of 2025, Tesla's total deliveries are expected to be between 1.6 million and 1.65 million vehicles, representing an approximate 8% decline compared to 2024 [1][3]. - The anticipated decline in deliveries is attributed to the expiration of the $7,500 federal tax credit, increased global competition, and demand being pulled forward in Q3 as buyers rushed to purchase vehicles before the incentive expired [5][6]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Competition - The expiration of the federal tax credit has significantly impacted demand, leading to a soft market in North America and Europe, where traditional automakers like Chevrolet and Ford are expected to introduce affordable electric vehicles in the coming years [5][6]. - Despite the introduction of lower-priced models, such as the Model Y SUV and Model 3 compact sedan, demand remains under pressure due to the lack of tax incentives and intensified competition from both traditional and new electric vehicle manufacturers [5][6]. Group 3: Stock Performance and Investor Sentiment - Despite the slowdown in vehicle sales, Tesla's stock price has increased by over 14% year-to-date, although this performance lags behind the S&P 500 index's 17% gain [7]. - Investor enthusiasm is largely based on CEO Elon Musk's strategic focus on Robotaxi, humanoid robots, and improved autonomous driving technology, while electric vehicle sales continue to be the primary revenue source for the company [9]. - Recent developments, including a court ruling that reinstated Musk's previously revoked compensation plan and shareholder approval of a new compensation package tied to ambitious delivery targets, have contributed to positive investor sentiment [9].