Micron Technology(US:MU) 美股研究社·2025-12-31 11:25Company Overview - Micron Technology is one of the three major players in the global memory chip manufacturing industry, alongside Samsung and SK Hynix. The company's products are primarily divided into three categories: Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM), NAND flash memory, and Non-Volatile Random Access Memory (NOR). In the most recent quarter, DRAM accounted for 99% of the company's total revenue, while NAND contributed 20% [3]. Core Drivers - In 2025, Micron's stock performance significantly outpaced the S&P 500 index, largely due to the surge in demand for memory chips, particularly High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) products, driven by the construction boom of AI data centers. This demand surge, combined with tightening industry supply, has led to increases in both product prices and profit margins. As a result, Micron's HBM capacity for 2026 is already fully booked, with expectations of sustained strong demand for the foreseeable future [9][11]. Industry Cyclicality - The memory chip industry, where Micron operates, is characterized by strong cyclicality, typically following a pattern of demand surges leading to price and profit increases, followed by capacity expansions that eventually result in oversupply and price declines. Currently, the industry is in the second phase of this cycle (upturn), but bullish investors claim that this cycle will last longer than usual, suggesting a structural change in demand. This perspective is seen as a classic case of "recency bias," where investors overlook the industry's inherent cyclical nature [12][13][15]. Valuation Concerns - Investors often use the Price/Earnings to Growth (PEG) ratio to argue that Micron's stock is undervalued. However, this metric is traditionally applicable to stable, non-cyclical companies. For a highly cyclical company like Micron, using PEG can be misleading and may lead investors to erroneous conclusions about the stock's valuation [14]. Investment Recommendations - For current Micron shareholders, the prevailing market enthusiasm presents an excellent opportunity to lock in profits. While it is unrealistic to sell at the absolute peak, taking advantage of the current "relative high" is advisable. For risk-tolerant investors, purchasing long-term out-of-the-money put options (LEAPS) could provide a hedge against potential significant declines in Micron's stock price, allowing for substantial returns if the stock falls [17].