微软：2026 年的最佳选择

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft is currently facing significant market concerns that have led to its valuation dropping to a three-year low, but analysts believe this presents a prime investment opportunity as these concerns are expected to ease by 2026, allowing for a potential recovery in stock price [2][6][21]. Group 1: Market Concerns - The primary concerns affecting Microsoft's stock price include over-reliance on OpenAI, slower-than-expected rollout of the Copilot assistant, rising capital intensity, and pressure on profit margins [6][7]. - Microsoft's stock performance has lagged behind other tech giants and the Nasdaq 100 index, with the current stock price at $487 per share and a forward P/E ratio slightly below 30 times [4][6]. Group 2: Over-reliance on OpenAI - As of Q1 FY2026, Microsoft's remaining performance obligations (RPO) grew by 51% to $392 billion, largely driven by OpenAI's orders, which raised concerns about Microsoft's dependency on OpenAI's capabilities [9][10]. - Analysts argue that while the concerns about OpenAI's contribution are valid, they may be overly pessimistic, as Microsoft's RPO includes a variety of immediate demands and not just long-term commitments [10]. Group 3: Copilot Assistant Rollout - Reports indicate that the rollout of Microsoft's Copilot has faced challenges, including lowered sales targets, although Microsoft has denied these claims [11][12]. - Despite the slow adoption rate, analysts believe that Microsoft's strong market position and the gradual integration of AI into its software ecosystem will lead to accelerated growth in the coming quarters [13]. Group 4: Rising Capital Intensity - Microsoft's capital expenditures reached nearly $35 billion last quarter, a 74% increase year-over-year, raising concerns about capital intensity as it accounted for 45% of revenue [14][15]. - Analysts maintain that Microsoft's capital spending is justified by real market demand and that the pressure will eventually ease, despite the current high capital intensity [15]. Group 5: Profit Margin Pressures - Microsoft has maintained a high operating profit margin, but there are concerns that it may decline due to rising depreciation costs and increased investment in AI [17]. - Analysts suggest that the anticipated drop in profit margins is a return to normal levels rather than a sign of long-term decline, as the previous high margins were influenced by timing factors in revenue recognition [17]. Group 6: Positive Performance Indicators - Microsoft's recent quarterly performance showed an 18% year-over-year revenue growth, with core segments experiencing accelerated growth and operating profit increasing by 24% [19]. - The company has provided optimistic guidance for future quarters, expecting continued growth in its productivity and cloud segments, which reflects strong underlying growth momentum [19]. Group 7: Future Earnings Projections - Analysts project that Microsoft's earnings per share will reach $20.5 by 2027, based on market expectations for FY2027 and FY2028 [21]. - With current market expectations being conservative and valuations at historical lows, Microsoft is viewed as one of the most attractive investment opportunities for 2026 [22].