崩盘的Cybertruck、难产的4680，拖垮全球顶级供应商

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant challenges faced by Tesla's 4680 battery supply chain, particularly highlighting the drastic reduction in contracts with suppliers like L&F, which saw a drop in contract value from 3.83 trillion KRW (approximately 26.7 billion USD) to 973 million KRW (about 6,776 USD), a decline of over 99% [3][5]. Group 1: Supplier Impact - L&F's stock price has dropped over 11% this week and has fallen 64% since announcing the contract with Tesla in early 2023 [5]. - LG Energy Solution, another key supplier, is facing a 30% reduction in capital expenditures due to a slowdown in global electric vehicle demand, particularly in the high-end electric pickup market [5]. - Panasonic, despite a 4.3 billion USD agreement with Tesla for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, has not yet received orders for Cybertruck 4680 battery units [5]. Group 2: Cybertruck Sales Performance - As of Q2 2025, Cybertruck's actual sales were only 5,000 units, achieving just 5% of the ambitious target of 500,000 units per year [9]. - The sales figures for the third quarter continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 62.6%, delivering only 5,385 units [10]. - Design flaws and high starting prices over 60,000 USD have deterred potential buyers, leading to a rapid depreciation in the vehicle's resale value [11]. Group 3: 4680 Battery Development Challenges - The 4680 battery, introduced in September 2020, was expected to revolutionize Tesla's battery technology but has faced significant production hurdles [14][17]. - The dry manufacturing process intended to reduce costs and environmental impact has proven difficult to scale, leading to production delays and technical challenges [19][20]. - In May 2024, Elon Musk issued an ultimatum to the 4680 battery development team to resolve cost and scalability issues by the end of the year [22]. Group 4: Future Prospects and Industry Opinions - Despite the challenges, Tesla is committed to overcoming the production bottlenecks of the 4680 battery by controlling the entire supply chain and optimizing production processes [25]. - Industry skepticism remains, with some experts predicting the failure of the 4680 battery project, citing Tesla's lack of expertise in battery manufacturing compared to competitors [27][28]. - The future of the 4680 battery project is uncertain, especially if it remains tied solely to the underperforming Cybertruck model [28].