Huaxi Securities(SZ:002926) 一瑜中的·2026-01-01 16:01Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for a "good start" in the Chinese economy for 2026, emphasizing the need for careful evaluation of fiscal income, debt issuance, and project investments as indicators of economic performance [2][3]. Group 1: Income "Good Start"? - The logic states that fiscal expenditure equals fiscal income plus debt, and the assessment of fiscal income's upward momentum at the beginning of 2026 is crucial [4][21]. - The conclusion indicates that fiscal income at the beginning of 2026 may not show significant upward movement, particularly for land sales revenue, which is expected to face downward risks [5][23]. - The analysis highlights that the "income tail effect" from 2025 may not be significant, leading to insufficient upward momentum for Q1 2026 income [6][24]. Group 2: Debt "Good Start"? - The logic reiterates that fiscal expenditure equals fiscal income plus debt, focusing on the issuance scale of government bonds at the beginning of 2026 [8][31]. - The conclusion suggests that the scale of new government debt issuance at the beginning of 2026 may not be significantly high [9][33]. - The analysis indicates that new local government debt issuance in Q1 2026 is unlikely to exceed that of Q1 2025, based on the disclosure of local debt issuance plans [10][36]. Group 3: Project "Good Start"? - The logic emphasizes that "funds follow projects," and the performance of local projects at the beginning of the year is a key reference for fiscal efforts [12][44]. - The conclusion presents a pragmatic qualitative assessment, with quantitative indicators from central authorities showing moderate expectations, while major provinces' project confirmations are pending until mid-January [13][45]. - The analysis focuses on whether there will be significant net expansion in major provinces' budgets in January and whether the investment growth rate of major projects in 2026 can improve [16][47].