近 200 亿高镍订单“蒸发” 特斯拉4680电池进展追踪

Core Viewpoint - The significant reduction in the long-term supply contract for high-nickel cathode materials between L&F and Tesla has raised concerns about the viability of Tesla's 4680 battery project, indicating potential challenges in production and demand for electric vehicles [1][2][6]. Group 1: Contract Details and Implications - L&F initially signed a supply agreement with Tesla in February 2023, valued at approximately 3.83 trillion KRW, covering the period from 2024 to 2025 [1][2]. - By December 29, 2025, L&F announced that the contract's estimated value had been reduced to less than 10 million KRW, a decrease of nearly 99%, attributed to changes in supply volume [1][3]. - The drastic reduction in contract value has directly impacted L&F's performance expectations and serves as a financial signal regarding the challenges faced by Tesla's 4680 battery production [2][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Analysis - Following the announcement, L&F's stock price fell by over 7% on the first trading day, reflecting immediate market concerns [4]. - Analysts have linked the contract's reduction to two main factors: Tesla's slower-than-expected ramp-up of 4680 battery production and a general slowdown in demand for electric vehicles in the U.S. market [7][8]. - The Cybertruck, as the only mass-produced vehicle utilizing the 4680 cells, has not met sales expectations, further diminishing the demand for high-nickel materials [8]. Group 3: Broader Industry Context - The initial optimism surrounding high-nickel expansion has been reversed due to the realities of production challenges and market demand [5][10]. - Tesla's shift in battery strategy includes a focus on LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate) batteries for standard range models, indicating a pivot away from high-nickel configurations for mass-market vehicles [11][13]. - The overall market environment, including high interest rates and uncertain subsidy policies, has led to a reevaluation of electric vehicle investments, impacting demand for high-nickel batteries [14]. Group 4: Resource Market Adjustments - Concurrently, there have been significant developments in the nickel resource sector, with companies like Shengtu Mining terminating high-nickel projects due to weak nickel prices and profitability pressures [15][16]. - Indonesia's government plans to reduce nickel production quotas significantly by 2026, aiming to stabilize prices and alleviate oversupply issues [17]. - These adjustments in the nickel supply chain reflect a broader trend of recalibrating expectations around high-nickel battery production and resource availability [18].