显卡价格暴涨，都怪AI

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a severe supply-demand imbalance in the semiconductor market, particularly affecting graphics cards and memory chips, driven by the explosive growth in AI data centers, which is significantly impacting consumer electronics prices and availability [1][3][9]. Group 1: Graphics Card Market - The official price of Nvidia's RTX 5090 is $1999, but actual retail prices have surged to $4000, with predictions it may reach $5000, reflecting a 150% increase over the official price [1]. - Third-party graphics cards start at $2499, but online retailers are pricing them between $3000 and $4000, indicating a significant markup due to supply constraints [1]. - The gaming community is at a disadvantage in this competition for chip resources, as AI data centers consume the majority of available capacity [1]. Group 2: Memory Chip Crisis - The demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) has skyrocketed due to AI model training, leading to a severe shortage of consumer-grade DRAM chips [3]. - Memory prices have doubled in the past six months, increasing graphics card manufacturing costs by 80% [3]. - TrendForce predicts a 50%-55% increase in average DRAM prices by Q4 2025, while Citigroup expects an additional 40% rise by Q2 2026 [3][4]. Group 3: Supply Chain Issues - Major manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix have prioritized AI server markets, leading to a public acknowledgment of order volumes exceeding production capacity for 2026 [4]. - New chip factories require two to three years to build, meaning the supply shortage will not be resolved before 2027 [4]. - Nvidia's H200 chip, priced at $30,000 to $40,000, requires multiple HBM3e memory chips, further limiting availability for consumer markets [4]. Group 4: Impact on Consumers - Companies like Dell and Lenovo have reported unprecedented cost pressures, predicting a 5%-20% price increase for smartphones, computers, and home appliances in 2026 [6]. - Xiaomi has already raised prices for flagship models, citing supply chain pressures that will be greater in 2026 than in 2025 [6]. - Consumer electronics manufacturers have little negotiating power, as cloud service providers secure long-term contracts with chip manufacturers, forcing them to accept higher prices [6]. Group 5: Resource Allocation Imbalance - Morgan Stanley forecasts that spending on AI infrastructure by major U.S. tech companies will reach $620 billion in 2026, a 32% increase from 2025 [9]. - The demand from AI data centers far outweighs that of the consumer electronics market, leading to a prioritization of resources towards AI applications [9]. - Analysts warn that the current shortages could evolve into a supply chain crisis similar to that experienced during the pandemic, with ongoing tight supply expected through 2027 [9].