Micron Technology(US:MU) 半导体行业观察·2026-01-03 03:40Core Viewpoint - The global memory market is expected to remain in a state of supply-demand imbalance through 2026, driven by high investments from cloud service providers in AI infrastructure, leading to rising product prices [1][9]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The supply of DRAM is projected to increase by 15% to 20% in 2026, while demand is expected to grow faster, at 20% to 25% [1]. - NAND flash supply is forecasted to grow by 13% to 18%, with demand increasing by 18% to 23% [1]. - In the server application sector, DRAM and NAND flash consumption is anticipated to surge by 40% to 50% in 2026 due to increased AI training and inference investments [2]. Group 2: Product Transition and Pricing - The phase-out of DDR4 is intensifying supply pressures, with major suppliers reallocating capacity to higher-margin products, leading to a significant reduction in DDR4 supply [3]. - By the second half of 2026, DDR4 wafer utilization is expected to drop to single-digit percentages, causing prices to remain elevated due to a projected 10% supply shortfall [3]. - The average contract price of Samsung's 64GB DDR5 RDIMM memory is expected to rise from approximately $265 in Q3 2025 to around $480 in Q1 2026, indicating strong price momentum [4]. Group 3: Supply Chain Challenges - The production of high bandwidth memory (HBM) is consuming more capacity, further straining the supply of standard DDR5 [4]. - NAND flash production is also facing constraints, with new capacity from Kioxia and Yangtze Memory Technologies expected to contribute significantly only by Q2 2026 [6]. - The demand for enterprise SSDs is rapidly increasing, particularly for large-capacity drives, prompting a shift from TLC to QLC NAND flash technology [7]. Group 4: Manufacturer Strategies and Market Outlook - Memory module manufacturers are adopting limited shipment strategies to prioritize strategic customers, while facing rising raw material costs that pressure profit margins [8]. - The market is expected to see a polarization, with some manufacturers securing stable chip supplies while others struggle with shortages [8]. - Analysts predict that the supply-demand imbalance in the memory market will persist for several years, with pricing power remaining with memory chip manufacturers due to strong AI-driven demand and structural supply constraints [9].