GED(SZ:000539) 光大证券研究·2026-01-04 23:04Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Guangdong electricity annual trading shows a "volume increase and price decrease" trend, with the overall on-grid electricity price remaining stable year-on-year [4]. Group 1: Trading Volume and Price - The total trading volume excluding green electricity increased by 5.38% year-on-year, reaching a recent high, while the average transaction price decreased by 5.03%, corresponding to 2 cents/kWh [4]. - The average wholesale electricity price for 2025 was 0.392 yuan/kWh, while for 2026 it is projected to be 0.372 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 2 cents/kWh year-on-year [4]. Group 2: Capacity Pricing - Capacity pricing is executed according to national and provincial regulations, with a subsidy level of 100 yuan/kW for 2025, leading to a capacity subsidy of 0.025 yuan/kWh based on the 2024 coal-fired utilization hours of 3950 hours [4]. - For 2026, the capacity subsidy is expected to rise to 0.042 yuan/kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.6 cents/kWh [4]. Group 3: Profitability of Power Generation - The annual long-term contract for 1 million kW units in 2026 reflects the current operating costs of thermal power, with an estimated average profit of 2 cents/kWh for the year based on the average coal price in 2025 [5]. - More efficient 1 million kW ultra-supercritical units are expected to achieve profitability, while smaller units (300,000 kW and 600,000 kW) are likely to incur losses [5]. Group 4: Impact of Green Electricity - As of 2024, thermal power's installed capacity and generation account for 54.8% and 70.7% of Guangdong's total, respectively, with the influence of green electricity on overall supply and demand expected to increase [6]. - The mechanism electricity price in Guangdong is set at 0.36 yuan/kWh, while the 2026 long-term contract price for thermal power is 0.372 yuan/kWh, indicating that the long-term contract price is above the green electricity mechanism price [6][7]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - The impact of green electricity on thermal power pricing is significant, particularly during peak solar output periods, which is expected to further lower spot electricity prices [7]. - The signed 2026 annual long-term contract price provides a profitability floor for Guangdong thermal power units, and without the price floor limitation, the bidding results could exceed the lower limit [7].