Goldman Sachs(US:GS) 美股IPO·2026-01-05 04:22Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of U.S. involvement in Venezuela's oil industry, highlighting both short-term uncertainties and long-term implications for global oil prices due to potential recovery in Venezuelan oil production [1][3][5]. Short-term Supply Risks - The short-term influence of Venezuela on oil prices is ambiguous, depending on the evolution of U.S. sanctions. If the new government gains full sanction exemptions, production could increase by 400,000 barrels per day by the end of 2026, potentially lowering Brent crude prices to an average of $54 per barrel [5]. - Conversely, if the current government attempts to maintain control, leading to increased chaos or production interruptions, output could decrease by 400,000 barrels per day, raising Brent crude prices to $58 per barrel [5]. - Current production levels are estimated to be around 800,000 barrels per day, down from approximately 930,000 barrels per day last November due to U.S. actions affecting oil tanker operations [5]. Long-term Recovery Pressure on Oil Prices - Venezuela holds about one-fifth of the world's proven oil reserves and previously peaked at around 3 million barrels per day in the mid-2000s. If production can rebound to 2 million barrels per day by 2030, it could exert downward pressure on oil prices by approximately $4 per barrel [6]. - The potential increase in Venezuelan production, combined with unexpected output growth from Russia and the U.S., heightens the long-term risk of declining oil prices [6]. - The gradual recovery of heavy crude oil production in Venezuela, which is rich in diesel components, may offset some structural benefits to diesel margins [6]. Cautious Outlook on Recovery Speed - Despite ambitious rebuilding plans proposed by President Trump, the company remains cautious about the speed of recovery due to severely degraded infrastructure in Venezuela. Significant investment and time are required to enhance heavy oil recovery rates and improve oil upgrading facilities [7]. - Improvements in operational efficiency, stable electricity supply, and enhanced oil transportation infrastructure are essential for any substantial recovery [7]. - A meaningful recovery will necessitate strong incentives to attract large-scale upstream investments, indicating that production increases will likely be slow and localized [7].