Tesla(US:TSLA) 美股研究社·2026-01-05 12:54Core Viewpoint - Tesla's Q4 2025 delivery report revealed a significant decline in annual delivery volume, failing to meet the CEO's earlier guidance of a 20% to 30% growth, primarily due to multiple adverse factors [1][11]. Group 1: Previous Reports Review - In the previous quarter, Tesla's revenue exceeded market expectations, but net profit fell short. CEO Elon Musk remained optimistic about the Robo-Taxi plan, which temporarily boosted stock prices before a subsequent decline [2]. Group 2: Q4 2025 Core Data Analysis - The market had low expectations for Tesla's Q4 performance due to the expiration of the U.S. federal EV tax credit. To boost sales, Tesla implemented various incentives, and the anticipated reduction in Norway's EV subsidies spurred early purchases [3]. - Tesla's actual total delivery volume fell short of both internal analyst expectations and Bloomberg's consensus. The company experienced a year-on-year decline of over 150,000 vehicles in total deliveries [4]. Group 3: Future Focus Areas - Analysts will closely monitor Tesla's pricing adjustments and promotional strategies to assess efforts to stimulate global sales. The complete Q4 financial report is scheduled for January 28, with a focus on quarterly profit margins and 2026 performance guidance [5]. - Attention will also be given to management's comments on rising raw material costs, as significant price increases in key materials like silver and lithium carbonate could elevate production costs for Tesla and other EV manufacturers [5]. Group 4: Current Valuation Level Analysis - Tesla's stock price reflects an extremely high valuation, with a P/E ratio of approximately 198 times the adjusted earnings per share for 2026, compared to single-digit P/E ratios for major traditional automakers [8]. - The average target price from Wall Street analysts for Tesla is around $399, indicating a potential decline of nearly 9% from the recent closing price, despite a recent increase of about $32 in target price [10]. Group 5: Final Views and Investment Recommendations - Tesla concluded 2025 with a disappointing delivery report, with Q4 delivery volumes not meeting market expectations and a year-on-year decline of over 150,000 vehicles. While the energy storage business showed promise, the progress on autonomous driving remains significantly behind initial projections [11].