SWHY(SZ:000166) 赵伟宏观探索·2026-01-05 16:04Group 1: Major Asset Performance - The Hang Seng Index and other major indices saw mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.0% and the Nasdaq falling by 1.5% [2][8][13] - In the US, the S&P 500 sectors mostly declined, with energy and utilities up by 3.3% and 0.9% respectively, while consumer discretionary and information technology fell by 3.2% and 1.5% [8] - Emerging market indices generally increased, with the Korean Composite Index rising by 4.4% and the Ho Chi Minh Index by 3.2% [2] Group 2: Bond Yields - Developed countries' 10-year bond yields mostly increased, with the US yield rising by 5.0 basis points to 4.19% [19] - Emerging market 10-year bond yields also saw increases, with Turkey's yield up by 133.0 basis points to 29.06% [22] Group 3: Currency Movements - The US dollar index rose by 0.4% to 98.46, while other currencies depreciated against the dollar, including the euro and the British pound [25][35] - The offshore and onshore RMB appreciated against the dollar, with the onshore rate at 6.9890 [35] Group 4: Commodity Prices - Most commodity prices increased, with WTI crude oil rising by 1.0% to $57.3 per barrel, while gold and silver prices fell significantly, with gold down by 5.0% to $4317.8 per ounce [40][46] - Base metal prices saw an overall increase, with LME copper up by 2.4% to $12,510 per ton [46] Group 5: Geopolitical Events - The US military conducted airstrikes in Venezuela, escalating tensions in the region [56] - The Japanese government announced a record-high budget for the fiscal year 2026, totaling 122.3 trillion yen, a 6.3% increase from the previous year [61] Group 6: Trade Policy Updates - The US postponed tariff increases on soft furniture and kitchen cabinets from January 1, 2026, to January 1, 2027, maintaining the current 25% tariff rate [66] - The US Trade Representative announced a delay in additional tariffs on Chinese semiconductors for 18 months, starting with an initial rate of 0% [66] Group 7: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes revealed a division among officials regarding future interest rate cuts, with some advocating for a pause to assess the impact on the economy [68] - Many participants noted that tariffs' inflationary effects are expected to diminish over time [68]