热点思考 | 人民币和港股，谁是谁的“影子”？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant correlation between the Hong Kong stock market and the Renminbi (RMB) since 2016, highlighting a recent divergence where the RMB has appreciated rapidly while the Hong Kong stock market has not followed suit, raising questions about the underlying logic of this relationship and potential future developments [1][2][3]. Group 1: RMB and Hong Kong Stock Market Relationship - Historically, there has been a significant positive correlation between the RMB and the Hong Kong stock market, with a negative correlation of -0.54 between the Hong Kong stock index and the USD/RMB exchange rate since 2016 [2][7]. - When the RMB appreciates by more than 1.5% in a month, there is a 93.5% probability that the Hang Seng Index will rise in that month [2][7]. - However, since November 13, 2025, the RMB has appreciated by 1.9%, while the Hang Seng Index has declined by 4.8%, marking a significant divergence from historical trends [2][24]. Group 2: Reasons for the Divergence - The weak performance of key sectors in the Hong Kong stock market has limited the positive impact of RMB appreciation on corporate earnings [3][30]. - The RMB appreciation can amplify both profits and losses, and recent earnings reports indicate a decline in expected earnings per share (EPS) for the Hang Seng Index, which weakens the revaluation effect [3][30]. - The market has been characterized by profit-taking behavior, with low trading volumes limiting the immediate response of the Hong Kong stock market to favorable factors [3][40]. Group 3: Future Outlook for RMB and Hong Kong Stock Market - There is potential for the correlation between the Hong Kong stock market and the RMB to return, driven by improvements in corporate earnings and the restoration of foreign investment allocation effects [4][50]. - The combination of upward growth in next fiscal year earnings and downward revisions in current fiscal year earnings often signals an improvement in earnings expectations [4][50]. - The recovery of the Producer Price Index (PPI) may attract foreign capital inflows, and the reallocation of household savings could have spillover effects on the Hong Kong stock market [4][58].