Goldman Sachs(US:GS) 华尔街见闻·2026-01-06 11:49Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' strategist team has issued a strong bullish signal for Chinese assets, recommending investors to "overweight" Chinese stocks, predicting a robust bull market in 2026 and 2027 driven by corporate profit growth and valuation recovery, with an expected annual increase of 15% to 20% [1][3]. Group 1: Profit Recovery and Valuation Reassessment - The core viewpoint of Goldman Sachs is based on expectations of substantial improvement in corporate fundamentals, with profit growth rates projected at 14% and 12% for 2026 and 2027 respectively, alongside an anticipated 10% valuation uplift [3][4]. - Key factors driving profit acceleration include the widespread application of AI technology, the trend of Chinese companies "going global," and policy measures aimed at curbing disorderly competition, referred to as "anti-involution" actions [3][4]. - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the current valuation levels of Chinese markets do not fully reflect their growth potential, suggesting that improved investor sentiment and capital reallocation will lead to significant valuation reassessment [4]. Group 2: Export Structure Optimization and "Going Global" Dividend - Despite a complex external trade environment, Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about the competitiveness of China's export sector, which is a crucial rationale for its positive outlook on Chinese listed companies [6]. - The report highlights that Chinese exporters have successfully diversified their markets, with emerging markets becoming significant growth points, and the shift from simple product exports to globalized layouts, including increased exports of intermediate and capital goods [6][7]. - It is projected that export volumes will maintain an annual growth rate of 5-6% in the coming years, providing direct performance support for related listed companies [7]. Group 3: Policy Easing and Liquidity Environment - Goldman Sachs anticipates a relatively loose monetary policy environment in China, which will benefit stock market performance, predicting two 10 basis point cuts in policy interest rates by the central bank in 2026 [9]. - The report forecasts that the central bank will maintain ample interbank liquidity to support economic growth and government bond issuance, leading to a decline in short-term interest rates, with the 7-day reverse repo rate expected to drop from 1.4% to around 1.2% by the end of 2026 [9]. - The expansionary fiscal policy, with an anticipated increase in the broad fiscal deficit, will also provide support for the real economy and market sentiment [9]. Group 4: Attractiveness of Renminbi Assets and Currency Appreciation - Beyond the potential for stock market gains, currency factors may provide additional returns for foreign investors holding Chinese assets, with the Renminbi currently undervalued by approximately 25% against the US dollar [10][12]. - The report predicts that the Renminbi will gradually appreciate to 6.85 against the US dollar within the next 12 months, supported by strong export growth and trade surpluses, with China's goods trade surplus expected to expand to $1.4 trillion by 2026 [10][12]. - An increase in the current account surplus, easing US-China trade tensions, and policy support for the internationalization of the Renminbi will further bolster the currency's strength, enhancing total returns for international investors denominated in US dollars [12].